🔗 Share this article

Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: from the moment Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”