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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|