UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.